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时间序列预测法

发布日期:2020-12-11

时间序列预测法

标签: 时间 序列 预测

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[A] To start, states that gain approval to measure student growth will also be required to chart progress the old way, comparing this year’s students with those of last year’s. The Education Department wants to see that data to help determine whether charting growth is a fair, accurate measure. Patricia Sullivan, director of the independent Center on Education Policy, praised federal leaders for showing flexibility and clearly outlining what states must do to get it.  [B] Tinkering again with enforcement of the No Child Left Behind education law, the US government plans to let some states fundamentally change how they measure yearly student progress. In an experiment that’s been months in the making, up to 10 states will be allowed to measure not just how students are performing, but how that performance is changing over time.  [C] Education Secretary Margaret Spellings was announcing the “growth model” policy on Friday to a gathering of state school chiefs in Richmond, Virginia, The Associated Press learned. “We’re open to new ideas, but we’re not taking our eyes off the ball,” Spellings said in remarks prepared for delivery to the state school officials. Frustrated states have been pleading for permission to measure growth by students, which may make it easier for schools to meet their goals and avoid penalties. Spellings has promised to be flexible in enforcing the law. Schools that receive federal poverty aid but don’t make “adequate yearly progress” for at least two years face mounting penalties, from allowing students to transfer and providing tutoring to poor children to eventual restructuring of the school and its staff. Spellings said it makes sense to give schools credit for progress that students make.  [D] A growth model could benefit not just struggling students but also gifted ones who may be challenged anew to show their own yearly progress, beyond the school’s standard benchmark. “This is clearly what States have been asking for,” Sullivan said. “It makes a lot of sense to measure growth. It’s so discouraging for teachers when students make tremendous gains but don’t get the credit because they don’t get all the way over the bar.”  [E] The states that win approval for the new flexibility, however, must do more than show growth. They still will have to get all children up to par in reading and maths by 2014, as the law requires, and show consistent gains along the way. The Education Department, eager to show it is not weakening the law, will require states to take many steps before they can qualify for the “growth” option. States must have data systems to track individual students, close achievement gaps between whites and minorities, and prove they have at least one year of baseline testing. The law requires yearly testing in grades three to eight and once in high school.  [F] The latest shift in enforcement of the President Bush’s No Child Left Behind law is politically significant, one that is central to Bush’s domestic agenda. Other recent changes have dealt with testing, teacher quality and students with debilities.  [G] Currently, schools are judged based only on how today’s students compare to last year’s students in moths and reading—such as fourth-graders in 2005 versus fourth-graders in 2004. Many state leaders don’t like the current system of comparison because it doesn’t recognize changes in the population or growth by individual students. So it often faces criticism in statehouses and schoolhouses.Order:

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