The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature’s Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.　　“Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highy concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plalnsville, which has many such residents. Plainsiville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise dothiog are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsiville’s schoolchildren are required to participate in a ‘fitness for life’ program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.”　　Discuss how well-reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion, be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative examples or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

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In this memo the vice president of Nature’s Way (NW), a chain of stores selling health food and health-related products, recommends opening a store in Plainesville. To support this recommendation the vice president cites the following facts about Plainesville: (1) sales of exercise shoes and clothing are at all-time highs; (2) the local health club is more popular than ever; and (3) the city’s schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness program. Close scrutiny of each of these facts, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the recommehdation.
First, strong sales of exercise apparel do not necessarily indicate that Plainesville residents would be interested in NW’s products, or that these residents are interested in exercising. Perhaps exercise apparel happens to be fashionable at the moment, or inexpensive compared to other types of clothing. For that matter, perhaps the stronger-than-usual sales are due to increasing sales to tourists. In short, without ruling out other possible reasons for the strong sales the vice president cannot convince me on the basis of them that Plainesville residents are exercising regularly, let alone that they would be interested in buying the sorts of food and other products that NW sells.
Secondly, even if exercise is more popular among Plainesville residents than ever before, the vice president assumes further that people who exercise regularly are also interested in buying health food and health-related products. Yet the memo contains no evidence to support this assumption. Lacking such evidence it is equally possible that aside fron exercising Plainesville residents have little interest in leading a healthy lifestyle. In fact, perhaps as a result of regular exercise they believe they are sufficiently fit and healthy and do not need a heathy diet.
Thirdly, the popularity of the local health club is little indication that NW will earn a profit from a store in Plalnesville. Perhaps club membem live in an area of Plainesville nowhere near feasible sites for a NW store. Or perhaps the club’s primary appeal is as a singles meeting place, and that members actually have little interest in a healthy lifestyle. Besides, even if the club’s members would patronize a NW store these members might be insufficient in number to ensure a profit for the store, especially considering that this health club is the only one in Plainesville.
Fourth, the fact that a certain fitness program is mandatory for Plainesville’s schoolchildren accomplishes nothing toward bolstering the recommendation. Many years must pass before these children will be old enough to make buying decisions when it comes to food and health-related products. Their habits and interests might change radically over time. Besides, mandatory participation is no indication of genuine interest in health or fitness. Moreover, when these children grow older it is entirely possible that they will favor an unhealthy lifestyle—as a reaction to the healthful habits imposed upon them now.
Finally, even assuming that Plainesville residents are strongly interested in eating health foods and health-related products, the recommendation rests on two additional assumptions: (1) that this interest will continue in the foreseeable future, and (2) that Plainesville residents will prefer NW over other merchants that sell similar products. Until the vice president substantiates both assumptions I remain unconvinced that a NW store in Plainesville would be profitable.
In sum, the recommendmion relies on certiain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the recommendation the vice president must provide clear evidence—perhaps by way of a local survey or study—that Plainesville residents who buy and wear exercise apparel, and especially the health club’s members, do in fact exercise regularly, and that these exercisers are likely to buy health foods and health-related products at a NW store. To better assess the recommendation, I would need to know why Plainesville’s health club is popular, and why Plainesville does not contain more health clubs. I would also need to know what competition NW might face in Plainesville.

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