采用指数平滑法，假定本期预测需求为10000，本期实际需求9000，α=0．3，则下期预测值为（）。

[问答题]Look at the topic headings below, marked A, B, C, D E, and F, and match them with the paragraphs in the text below. There is one extra heading which you don’t need to use.　　Questions 1-5 are based on the following passage.　　A. Decrease in food yields　　B. Drop in yield affected by reduction in research　　C. Pollution mining crops　　D. Desperate situation for Asia　　E. Population explosion compounds Asia’s problems　　F. International commerce threatens Asian agricultureWHY WE CAN’T AFFORD TO LET ASIA STARVE　　Among the problems afflicting a burgeoning world population, overcrowding, poverty and environmental degradation are combining to put at risk the very essence of our survival-food.　　　　“If by the beginning of the next century we have failed to satisfy the very basic needs of the two billion very poor and four billion poor, life for the rest of us could be extremely risky and uncomfortable,” predicts Dr. Klaus Lampe of the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in the Philippines. This is a highly threatening, even terrifying prediction for Asia, where 70 per cent of the world’s poor live but where reserves of good quality arable land have practically run out.　　　　Although the world regards Asia as the focus of an economic and industrial miracle, without adequate supplies of food, Lampe says, chaos could easily result in many countries. And the impact will be felt widely throughout the region. In the 1990s alone, he says, the cities of Asia will be swollen by a further 500 million people—nearly equal to the population of the United States and European Community combined. “The only growing population in Asia is that of the poor. Prime productive land is being used for city expansion and building roads, while thousands of hectares are being taken out of production each year because of salinity or alkalinity.”　　　　From the mid-1960s when the Green Revolution began, Asian food production doubled through a combination of highyielding crops, expanded farming area and greater intensification. From now on, growing enough food will depend almost entirely on increasing yield from the same, or smaller, area of land. However, a mysterious threat is emerging in the noticeably declining yields of rice from areas that have been most intensively farmed. Unless scientists can unravel why this is so, food output in Asia may actually stagnate at a time when population will double.Such issues, Lampe argues, while seen as remote by many countries and international corporations, will strike at their economic base as well. Societies that are too poor or driven by internal strife and civil war will be bad for investment or as markets for goods. Pressure from a rising tide of environmental and political refugees may also be felt.　　　　One significant factor undermining the agricultural economies of developing countries has been the farm trade war between the US and the EC. “We talk about environmental degradation and dangerous chemicals, yet spend billions of US dollars and ECUs producing things we don’t want which ruin local production systems and incomes for poor people,” Lampe says. And instead of developed countries helping struggling nations to develop sustainable food production systems, their policies tend to erode and destroy them.　　When world grain prices are bad, farmers in Asia’s uplands turn from rice to cash crops to supplement failing incomes, or clear larger areas of rainforest with catastrophic environmental consequences within just a few years. Cleared rainforest soils are highly erosive; even where they are not, they rapidly become acid and toxic under intense cultivation and plants die, forcing the clearing of ever-larger areas.　　　　Research at the IRRI has indicated that intensive rice production-growing two or three crops a year on the same land is showing signs of yield declines as great as 30 per cent. Evidence for this comes from as far a field as India, The Philippines and Indonesia. At the same time, agricultural research worldwide has been contracting as governments, non-government bodies and private donors reduce funding because of domestic economic pressures. This means, Lampe says, that at risk is the capacity to solve such problems as rice yield decline and research to breed the new generation of superyielding crops. Yet rice will be needed to feed more than half the human population—an estimated 4.5 billion out of 8.3 billion people by 2030.　　Compared with the building of weapons of mass destruction or the mounting of space missions to Mars, Lampe says, the devising of sustainable farming systems has little political appeal to most governments: “To them I say: I hope you can sleep well at night.”

[单选题]下列消化过程属于化学性消化的是（　）

[问答题]试论《离骚》的主要艺术特色。

[单选题]因数据采样不足，在高、低信号强度差别大的组织交界区出现多个平行条纹（）

[问答题]根据支护材料不同，棚式支护可分为哪几种？

[单选题]下述不属于血源性肺脓肿X线征象的是：（）

[多选题]“参加这次会议的人不都是先进工作者，这些人都是参加这次会议的，可见，这些人都不是先进工作者”，这个三段论推理违反了（）的规则。

[填空题]普通话上声的调值是（），半上的调值是（）。

[填空题]（）是为了弄清不同的故障性质，从而采取相应的（）。

[单选题]研究学前儿童同伴关系的最常用的定量化方法是（）。

[单选题]采用指数平滑法，假定本期预测需求为10000，本期实际需求9000，α=0．3，则下期预测值为（）。

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